Friday, October 28, 2005

UA Preview

Admittedly I have not seen UA play yet this year so much of this is based on past experience and reading reviews form their games. Here is what I do know. The Beavs are playing at home and are facing a true freshman starting his first game. Ask Alex Brink how that worked out for him. While UA brings in a tough D, they are the only team in the Pac-10 to yield less than 200 yards passing per game, they should be able to stop the Beavs. This is the home debut of the newfound running game, Mike Hass is still Mike Hass, and Jason Vandiver is starting to emerge as a viable option at TE. If Moore can handle the zone blitz package of the cats and not through too many balls to the guys in white the Beavs win comfortably. If turnovers become an issue the cats are good enough to get their second win.

Once again injuries will play a role. The cats lose their punter who was leading the nation in yards per kick and their starting left guard. I look for the Beavs to be aggressive on D and look to apply pressure and make the frosh make quick decisions. That should lead to some inefficiency and some turnovers. Beavs have the edge in the kicking game with the cats K making only 3 of 6 on the year while Serna is 14 of 16 with both misses being outside 40. The weather play into this as well as cool wet conditions are forecasted for Saturday. Not something the boys from the desert are used to dealing with.

This is a big one. With Stanford looking tougher by the week and the status of UO unknown as the Dixon era starts, the next two weeks are must wins for the Beavs to have the kind of season they are hoping for. I think they play well in front of the home crowd and get it done. MM throws two picks but the D picks him up by getting 4 TO's for us.

Prediction:
Beavs - 30
UA - 15

PS - It's Halloween, how about breaking out the Orange pants with black tops.


Thursday, October 27, 2005

World Series Thoughts

 - I think I could have pitched against the 'stros and held them scoreless for the past 19 innings.  I truly never thought they were going to score and I was rooting for them.

- When did Prince Charles become so interested in baseball and why do they have to show him every two minutes?

- If this is what baseball is going to look like now, BRING BACK the ROIDS!!!

- Those final two plays by Uribe were spectacular.

- I hate the Houston center field configuration with that hill.  What???

- What were they thinking with those old rainbow striped uni's?

- Remember when Robin Ventura charged Nolan Ryan after being hit and Ryan put him in a headlock and pounded on his crown.  That was awesome.


Wednesday, October 26, 2005

vs. U.C.L.A. we were U.G.L.Y.

I couldn’t have been more excited 90 seconds into the game as after 4 plays the Beavs were up 7-0.  Mike Hass already had two catches including a TD and it was clear he wasn't going to be shut down again.  He wasn't and ended with 7 for 199 and 2 scored.  However it didn’t take long for UCLA to tie the score and then the next thing I knew it was 24-7 and over.  Don't get me wrong at 4-3 the Beavs are better off than I thought they would be at this point, but I still have problems with this team.  Most notably is that in our 3 losses we have gotten pummeled.  L'ville, ASU and UCLA dominated us.  Are they that much better?  Maybe.  Do we have the skill to compete with them?  Absolutely.  I'll give you one of those types of games a year.  Sometimes it just happens.  But three in seven games is too much.

Now I'm no coach but I know that Mo Drew and Mercedes Lewis are key guys in the UCLA offense.  Maybe I take one away a'la Cal taking Hass away.  Instead we repeatedly let them get Drew against a LB in pass coverage and Lewis go 1:1 against a corner 7 inches shorter at the goal line.  These are matchups we were all aware of going in, yet it appeared that we didn’t defensive plan for nor adjust to during the game.  For UCLA, if it ain't broke don't fix it.  And we certainly gave them no reason too.  I leave this behind for now but should things go sour in the final four weeks we can look back at these games as symptoms of larger problems.

Beavs are at 4-3 and now face UA, @UW, and Stanford prior to the CW against the KC-less ducks.  Wins against UA and UW which seem likely if the Beavs play a solid game will take some pressure off as they qualify for a bowl.  A loss in one of those two and things could get interested.  Stanford is shaping up as a tough battle as the spanked a struggling ASU team this last week at one point leading 45-7.  Another QB that might cause us issues. 

After 4 weeks between games I am fired up and ready for Saturday to get here.  I'll be there in orange and with my voice well rested and ready to go.  Let's welcome the boys back and get them fired up for this important stretch.

UA preview to come.




Friday, October 21, 2005

UCLA Forecast

Details:
Beavs(4-2) @. #8 UCLA (6-0)
4:00 PDT on TBS
Rose Bowl

This is a BIG one for the Beavs. Coming off a big win at Cal and riding a four game conference road winning streak dating back to last year. Meanwhile the cubs have rallied from 10, 12 and 17 down in the fourth quarter of their last 3 games to win. In the two games against the Washington schools the Bruins lead for a grand total of 1 minute. Of course it was always when it mattered.

Keys to the game:

Run the ball - UCLA has given up 330 yards rushing in each of their last two games and the Beavs are coming off a dominating run performance versus statistically the #1 defense in the Pac-10. Keep in up and keep the ball away form the potent UCLA O. If YB gets another 40 totes, the Beavs win.

Stop Mercedes - Mercedes Lewis is a big talented tight end. He is the core of the passing game and must be contained. Our safeties will have to do a good job of monitoring the center off the field and the corners need to make a good showing on the perimeter to allow that.

Kick it OB - I'm not a big fan off ducking a guy, but after the Reggie Bush experience in the SC game last year I'm not taking any chances. All punts must be out of bounds. Mo Drew is averaging 30+ on returns and single handily rallied the cubs back against Cal two weeks ago. Sam is the man so just boom it away and get it out. Anything 30 yards or more is good by me (and apparently coach Riley too). No touches for Mo and I'll take my chances with a D that has been playing well of late.

Prediction:
Beavs - 31
Bruins - 23


Wednesday, October 19, 2005

Heisman Gibberish

In the local paper today on the front of the sports page was a headline that contained the words Clemens and Heisman.  Noticeably absent were the words "no way in hell."  Look, I hate the Ducks as much as the next Beaver fan so my stance is no surprise.  But this is just absurd.  First of all, any reasonable Heisman discussion starts and ends with Reggie Bush.  End of discussion.  A vote for anyone else is a travesty.  Second, Clemens is lucky if he is in the top 5 in the Pac-10, let alone the country.  Let's see Bush, Leinart, Mo Drew, Jarrett, Hass, Hagan, etc.  Now do I think Hass deserves a look for the award, no.  I'm no that much of a homer.  They are quality players, but Bush is without question the best.  Lastly, it's a little known fact that you can’t win the Heisman without throwing a pass more than 10 yards down field.  Sorry, rules are rules.



Monday, October 17, 2005

Beavs Read the Script

Stop the run - check. Make Booya pass - Check. Booya makes mistakes - Check, Beavs win - Check.

Well it wasn't quite that simple, but wow, it was much more impressive than the final score indicated. Beavs 23-20 in a game that they never lead by more than six. A game in which they had four turnovers and converted 4 first half red zone trips into a measly 9 points. A game in which all world receiver Mike Hass had 4 grabs for 17 yards. Don’t think that Hass didn’t have a lot to do with the success we had elsewhere though. Their plan was clear, stop Hass, stop the Beavs. 3 guys rush and 8 guys follow Hass wherever he goes. OK not that extreme, but you get the point. Except YB busted loose for 194 on 42 totes and 2 scores. Now to be honest things did seem to get a lot easier when Cal lost their started D tackle, but still. This was a Steven Jackson like performance. The Beavs simply manhandled the Bears on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. And as a spectator I agreed with YB's halftime quote when asked when they knew they were going to win the game. His response "Halftime". If was clear that we were better and this was a game we needed to win. It wasn't sealed until Booya's final lame duck hit the turf, but it was certainly deserved.

Thanks to Jeff Tedford for offering Booya a scholarship so he could turn the OSU one down, thus leading us to MM. We definitely got he better end of that deal.

BTW, Cal's all world running game was held to 75 yards rushing on 34 attempts. Ending Cal's strak of 18 straight games with a 100 yard rusher. The 75 yards is about 170 yards below their season average. OUCH! How's that for a stout run D.

If the running games looks anything like this going forward and MM can avoid doing his best DA impersonation (which made an appearance today) then this team could turn in a major, major season. I'll still target 7-3 headed to the CW, but 8-2 would not surprise me at all. Setting up a battle for 2nd place in the Pac-10. I've already got my tickets. Do you?

Bruin preview to come later.

PS - That shot to the YB's package by the Cal defender was bogus. What the heck is the dude thinking?


Wednesday, October 12, 2005

Pinella is pathetic

Will someone please give Lou Pinella a managerial job so I don't have to listen to his ridiculous commentary. Great baseball in the ALCS is being overshadowed by his elementary analysis and horrible timing. Just zip it!


Monday, October 10, 2005

Beavs at 3-2

OK, after a busy opening 5 weeks of the season, including 4 home games, I finally have time to sit down and talk about this years Beavs. At 3-2 with big come from behind wins over BSU and WSU the Beavs are poised for yet another bowl birth. At this point I think we get Zona and Stanford at home, leaving just one more victory to get. The likely candidate is at Washington as UCLA, Cal and Oregon seem to be playing at a level that we have yet to achieve. For this group 6-5 and an extra month of work would be great. Still can't run, can't stop the pass and yet have found a away to compete with everyone except L'ville. Let's take a look at this week.

Beavs @ Cal
Saturday 12:30 PDT on ABC

Cal is coming off a loss to UCLA and is all about the ground game. The good news is that the Beavs run defense has been good so far giving up 3.5 ypc. However, teams have had so much success against us in the air that running isn't always on their mind. Alex Brink from WSU put up 531 yards in a game that WSU led into the 4th. Our only hope in this game is to get Cal into a passing game. Booya hasn't been great yet and I think we can force him into some mistakes. If he is just able to turn around and hand off to Lynch (6.1 ypc) and Forsett (8.3 ypc) then we are in for a long, long day. Surprisingly I think we can stop the run and I give us a decent chance in this game. We have won the last two trips to Berkley and have two weeks to prepare revenge for last years whoopin in Corvallis. No Aaron Rogers this time and I think it will matter. This would be a giant win and setup the Matt Moore homecoming the following week at UCLA. Stay tuned.

Pure Genius

The more I think about it, the more I just can’t even grasp the genius of Mike Riley's new defensive scheme. Put to the ultimate test, a team coming off a bye week, it passed with flying colors. What's the strategy you say? Let the offensive team run themselves tired. Not just merely tired, but near exhaustion. The adrenaline of scoring on nearly every play will wear off soon and that's when we make our run. 30 minutes of non-stop scoring leaves teams breathless, dizzy and just plain worn out. If WSU coming of a complete week of rest runs out of steam, what chance does Cal and UCLA have in the next two weeks. Some might say the worst passing D in the country, I say the most creative defensive scheme known to man.

Go BEAVS!!
Stats for this week:
Comp Att YDS TD INT
BYE 19 29 390* 2 2
*Hey, at least this lowers our defensive per game average



Pac-10 Instant Replay Bites

I am getting tired of these official conferences on the field in the interest of "getting the call right". Prior to instant replay I saw very few of these types of meetings if any. Certainly they were of shorter duration when they did occur. Does this imply that formerly the officials didn't care as much about getting calls right? Weren't all game videos reviewed by the conference anyway? Is it worse to be publicly humiliated or disciplined by your employer?
Was the real intent of replay to turn call making into a science project including data gathering, processing and getting inputs form several subject experts prior to forming a hypothesis that will then be validated or rejected by a slow mo video replay anyway. It would all be much more convincing if you just made the freakin' call and let replay step in as necessary.

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