My Beaver Blog

OK, I've had almost a week to get over last weeks loss and am looking forward to the game tomorrow.  I still put our chances at slim, but both the Duck QB's are young and inexperienced as well.  If we can have a defensive game along the lines of the Cal game we might have a chance.  Problem there is neither Ayoob doesn’t play QB for the ducks.  No need to hold Gunderson back, not many people are expecting much from him anyway.  I look for several shots down field with the important thing being the O-lines ability to give Gundy time.  He is certainly not as mobile as MM.  YB will have to have the ball a bunch and be productive with it.  On D, we are going to get beat deep.  We must tackle well and minimize the big play. 

Think good thoughts.  Channel the energy of the '98 team. Be looking for a visit from the ghost of Joey-5-Pick.  How about avenging the Howry punt return from 2002.  The mountain is steep, but considering the character this team showed early in the year, who knows.  It's unfortunate that it has come down to this, but here we are.  Enjoy the day regardless, it could be the last time we get to see #28 sporting orange.  Mike, it's been our pleasure.  Now go out and have a legendary day.

Go BEAVS!

No prediction, it's clear by crystal ball is dysfunctional.

# posted by BeaverJoe : 11:28 AM  2 comments

Year three of Riley II will soon be behind us. First a disclaimer. There was no bigger fan of DE than me and I have been an admitted skeptic of OSU's decision to bring Riley back for a second stint. That said, I have attended every home game of the Riley II era and cheered my team on just the same. With that, here are my thoughts on his work to date.

Recruiting (Grade: B)
Admittedly Riley is at a disadvantage here recruiting to Corvallis and against the likes of SC, UCLA, nike U and the Arizona schools. That said he is continuously able to land the top talent out of Oregon (hey, it worked for the baseball team) and has landed some key guys from Hawaii. (How do I get the Hawaii recruiting gig?). According to those who judge like rivals.com our recruiting classes have improved in quality but still languish towards the bottom of the Pac -10. Not sure there is much a head coach can do to improve this. He doesn’t control the weather or the city of Corvallis. We will continue to depend on the diamonds in the rough (Jonathan Smith, Mike Hass, etc.) in order to be successful. As a result sometimes we'll get hits, other times we'll strike out. This is one area where Riley's demeanor probably plays well for him. This is a guy that is easy for parents to like and to trust with their kid for the next 5 years. Or so you would think, see team leadership below.

Play calling (Grade: C-)
Where do I start. He can’t take all the blame because clearly execution has a lot to do with this, but there have been some ridiculous choices made in this department this year. Need proof, watch the last 5 minutes of the UA game and tell me this isn't a glaring weakness of our team. Several times a game we are scrambling to get plays off before the play clock expires often because the play doesn’t get in to MM in a timely manner. Indecision? Confusion? Whatever it is it isn’t good. Have a plan. Know what you do well and go do it. Trust in the kids and put them in a position to succeed. Make sure to protect them from themselves (i.e. MM late in the UA game after already throwing 4 picks). I've never stood on the sideline at this level so I'm sure there's more to it then there appears. But if I can pick up on trends and patterns from watching a few games from row 5, don’t you think an experienced coach pouring over filmsfor hours can do the same thing.

In game adjustments (Grade: D)
This is easy, do we seem to get better over the course of a game? NO. Why? We are not making the proper adjustments. If games lasted only a quarter we would be solid, unfortunately there are four. Here are some opening drive summaries from Beaver games this year. As you'll see getting a good start if often not our problem.

Opp______ Drive Duration____ Result
L'Ville .................4:55..................... 7
WSU ..................3:50..................... 7
UCLA .................1:37..................... 7
Zona ...................2:50.................... 3
Tree ....................1:24.................... 7

While the Beavs got off to quick efficient starts in all these games, they ended up losing 4 of these 5 with the offense often sputtering after these quick starts. Why? Are other teams adjusting to what we are doing? Do we go away from what is being successful. Hard to tell. But what I do know is that this happens way to much. That and for all this offensive prowess, the #1 receiver by yards in the county (Hass), the #6 by yards per game running back in the country (Bernard), a Groza finalist for the countries best kicker (Serna) and yet the Beavs have only scored more than 30 points against a D1-A opponent once all season. That being the 44 they posted in that wild game against WSU. And don’t blame this on the OC, remember Riley calls the plays.

And wasn't he a defensive coach for the Saints prior to his second stint with the Beavs? Then how come we are 10 weeks into the season and have been burned in the same manner since week 2. Maybe he's just too stubborn. I'd like to think putting the kids in a position to succeed is more important than sticking to his scheme. It's not about style points coach, it's about winning.

Team leadership (Grade: D)
Let's see sheep stealing, the taxi driver pot incident, assault and a team captain failing to make grades. These things don’t make me feel good about my team or the University. Add that to the corny Hip Hip Hooray cheers and complete lack of discipline rearing its ugly head on the field again and it seems to me the Beavs are not headed in the right direction. Beavernation let me introduce you to Mr Mediocrity. Wanting to avoid a repeat of the Pettibone years, then you have the right guy. Want a repeat of the Fiesta Bowl year, ain't gonna happen. Riley does not convey the right attitude to make this team a Pac-10 champion. He will beat the teams he supposed to, most of the time (see UA and Stanford this year) and lose the games he is supposed to most of the time. As noted in recruiting we are not always going to have the top talent so we will be only be favored in about half our games in each. Looking for 6-6, then Riley is your guy. He is not able to coach a team up or inspire a team to be greater than they are. That's just not him and that's OK if you are average Joe. But that's not what I'm looking for in my football coach. At this level it is about the little things. Act with conviction and demand perfection from the team. Riley does neither and it has shown nearly every Saturday this fall.

# posted by BeaverJoe : 3:52 PM  4 comments

Ugh! That was enough to put me over the edge. Poor punting, missed FG's and ridiculous penalties (both on the part of the Beavs and the refs) lead to another close home loss. For those keeping track that is 3 home losses this season (ASU, UA and Stan) after going the prior 6 seasons with a total of 7 home losses. The curse of a raised Reser? Probably not. But this does spell the end of the Beavers season.

I drink more Orange kool-aid than most, just look at my predictions, but there is no way the Beavs stay with the Ducks next Saturday. With Moore, maybe. With Gunderson, no. Let's review. The Ducks are 9-1 and dreaming of a BCS bowl birth (which they won’t get but frankly deserve), the game is at Autzen, they have a chance to keep the 5-5 Beavs at home for the holidays, and of course we beat them 50-21 last year to keep them home. This has giant payback written all over it. That and the Beaver offense looked ineffective at best after Moore left and a week of preparation won’t make things much better. They will be able to abuse us in the slot all day, like most teams have. 3 wide receivers, slot to either side, Sabby matches up man to man against the slot and then the slot guy runs by him. Watch for a repeat of the long TD to Jordan Kent. As a result of this impending doom and untimely end to the Beaver season I'll concede and start looking forward. In the immortal words of my favorite duck fan, "It's basketball season!". No more CW discussion for me (Ducks - 51, Beavs - 8). I just don’t have the energy left after this taxing season.

Here's what coming up:

• X-mas wish list
• Riley's report card
• An east siders perspective on fans

Thanks seniors and best of luck to you all.

# posted by BeaverJoe : 9:33 AM  1 comments

OK folks, this is for all the marbles. I believe in this team but who really wants to travel to Eugene at 5-5 needing the win after the pasting we put on them last year.  Let's just get this bowl eligibility thing out of the way now and be able to play loose next week and see where that gets us.

The Beavs have had recent success against the tree winning the last four including the last two at Reser by a combined score of 81-9.  Wouldn't it be nice to be on the good side of a blowout for a change?  It's senior day, dad's weekend and bowl eligibility on the line so there's plenty to be fired up about.  Stanford is on a two game slide giving up a 21 point fourth quarter lead before falling in OT to the Bruins, then last week getting whacked by where they trailed 37-0 in the second and had 5 turnovers.

Stanford had gone four straight games without a turnover prior to the SC game, so we can’t expect a lot of gifts in this one.  The Beavs will have to protect the ball, but should be able to move it up and down the field on Stanford who's defensive prowess rivals our own.  They have a very week secondary but run a 3-4 front seven, therefore MM will have to be aware of LB's dropping into coverage and minimize mistakes.  On offense QB Trent Edwards is a threat to run as well as pass.  His leading receiver is out hurt and against SC last week was continuously flustered by pressure.  The Beavs need to bring the heat from Ellison and Bray and play solid D behind the receivers.  Their running game is weak and our running D is strong so if Stanford is to pull it out it would have to be through the air.  Hence the need for the Beavs to minimize big plays.  Haven't we been saying that all year?

Honestly, this appears to be a game that the Beavs can win handily if they can just play a complete game.  Solid D, keep the turnover battle to no worse than -1 and play off the emotion of this big day.  Oh yea, and as much as I love Serna, a few touchdowns wouldn’t hurt our effort.  Note to Riley, when you're inside the five, give it to YB.  Ellison, Bray, Hass, Anderson, Palescu and others play the final home game of their career.  With that elusive 6th win this Senior class will become the first in OSU history to play in 4 straight bowl games.  These guys make sure that the Beavs take care of business.

Beavs - 37
Tree - 24

# posted by BeaverJoe : 10:22 AM  0 comments

Two tickets to the game…free
Non stop flow of Hot Chocolate…$20
Gas for roundtrip to Seattle…$40
Seeing just how bad the Huskies are in person…PRICELESS

Don’t get me wrong.  I was elated with the win as it was a must if the Beavs want to extend their season into December, but the huskies are B-A-D BAD.  It wasn't the most entertaining game to watch and I don’t think the weather could have been worse (wet and a biting wind coming off the lake).  Their defense is adequate although the apparent hole in their secondary was left unexposed thanks to the weather and the resulting conservative play calling of the Beavs.  Some of which might have had to do with MM's performance last week, but the wind was just miserable.  By the way the two deep balls Moore did through hit Hass right in his hands.  Both were dropped.  The first he was jockeying with the DB, but the ball still made it to him.  The seconds he just missed.  It’s not something you'll see very often. 

The Husky offense though is pathetic.  The home crowd got excited as Deroucher came out to start the second half thinking their savior had arrived.  He seems a better passer than Stanback, certainly less mobile.  But when you hit guys in the hands and they drop it what does it matter?  Listening to the pre-gamer talk on the way up the Husky announcers were commenting on how well Simms ran the ball last week and how this might be a game where the Huskies have two 100 yard rushers.  Have these guys seen us play at all?  If we can hold Cal to 74 yards rushing, what chance do these jokers have?  The result was a net 19 yards rushing by the dawgs and 15 tackles for a loss.  Included in that was Keith Ellison doing his best impersonation of a missile destroying both QB's seemingly on every play.  Deroucher was so beat up after playing a half that he couldn’t shake the guys hand who did his post game interview.  They are young, but this team is a long, long, long way from being competitive.  Note to Husky fans - Deroucher is not the answer.  Take the cougs in a laugher in the Apple cup.

As for the Beavs.  Game ball goes to Serna.  6-6 on FG's in weather that was less than conducive to the kicking game.  It's so comforting to know this guy is on our side and that anything inside 50 is a given.  On defense, Ellison was everywhere again and here's hoping we bring a similar pressure package in this week against the trees or we could be in trouble.  On offense YB pounded out another 100+ yards on 35 carries and show no sign of slowing down.  Lastly to the loyal fans in orange that braved the trip, the crappy weather and the unfriendly confines of Husky stadium to cheer on the Beavs.  If you made it to this one you are definitely a Fan(atic).

Here we stand at 5-4.  Get plenty of rest between now and Saturday as this is a GIANT game.  While the Ducks seem beatable with their QB issues, I don’t want to have to rely on that W for a bowl birth.  It's Senior day, dad's weekend and the last home game of the year.  You'll have 9 months to recoup so get out and get loud.  Let's really see what 43,000 crazy people in orange can really do.

GO BEAVS!!!

# posted by BeaverJoe : 3:50 PM  0 comments

OK, so far the Beavs are 0-2 when I do these stupid predictions.  But, like Mike Riley, I don’t plan on making any changes.  The Beavs are 3-25 in their last 28 games against the Dawgs, but come off a win in Seattle last year.  The Huskies are winless in the Pac-10 again and have a grand total of 2 wins dating back to the start of last season.  Kick 'em while they're down! 

The weather forecast is dreary, wet and windy.  Hopefully this plays into the Beavs hands by letting them focus on the ground game and limiting MM's "opportunities".  If MM gets off to another rocky start we need to see Gunderson.  MAJOR SIDEBAR AHEAD - If not now, when?  4 TD's to 16 picks in Pac-10 play, can it get any worse?  The most disturbing thing about this week was MM admitting he wasn't paying attention to the situation (clock, score, yard line) when he fumbled inside the UA 20 last week.  "I'm just trying to make plays".  Sometimes making a play means not doing anything stupid.  Try it sometime.  End Sidebar. 

Sorry, I'm having a tough time getting over last weeks game. 

This game is scary as the Huskies come in looking similar to UA last week.  Struggling but hungry and at home.  The Beavs need to win 2 out of the final 3 to secure a bowl birth.  This one is a must as Stanford and UO await.  Let's just keep this one simple.  The Beavs have a good enough run D and a potent enough offense that if they are at worst -1 in the TO battle they win.  If MM decides to play catch with the UW DB's again, the Beavs get rolled.  Here's hoping MM snaps out of it and plays smart.

Beavs - 26
Dawgs - 20

# posted by BeaverJoe : 11:11 AM  0 comments

Haven’t stopped thinking about this one since it ended.

Well I was correct on the number of Picks to be thrown (6), just way off on my distribution. Matt Moore dominated the true Freshman out-picking him 6-0. Moore had more picks than balls that hit the turf (5). So many things went wrong in his game yet the Beavs had two chances in the last 5 minutes to secure the lead with a FG. One ended in a Moore fumble on a scramble while carelessly wielding the ball at his hip. The other on a deep ball from the UA 40 with still over a minute to go. In both cases bad decisions were made, both in the play call and by the QB. You're not going to win every play.

The defense is going to win some and that's OK. The key is to minimize both the number of plays they win and the significance of the impact. A run for no gain, fine. An incomplete pass, OK. A sack, not great, but sometimes not disastrous. A turnover, the worst case scenario. 7 times on Saturday Matt Moore let the defense win a play and aided in the worst case scenario happening. Often when the Beavs were in or near scoring range. IT'S ABOUT THE SITUATION. I appreciate Moore's ability to keep plays alive trying to make something happen, a skill lacked by his predecessor. But he doesn’t always make the best decisions in these cases and sometimes I wish he would admit defeat and live for another down. Don’t judge success one play at a time, but as a whole over the entire game. 654 yards of total offense wasted due to some ill advised decisions.

The coaching staff is not off the hook on this one. Some "interesting: play calls that put MM in a position to fail. Already having thrown 5 picks how about letting YB (190+ yards and 2 scores) continue to pound it. Let’s see 1st and goal at the 3 = 3 runs. Instead incomplete on first down, predictable run on second leads to a hold and we settle for 3. 1st and 10 at the 19 trailing by two. Routes in the end zone + pressure = scrambling QB who fumbles. The game should have been in the O-lines and YB's hands not MM. It wasn't necessary. Look, there is no bigger fan of a high powered passing game then me, but in this case it wasn't necessary. Sometimes I wonder if we are too infatuated with the pass. What if one game we actually ran for more yards than we passed for. Ball control, time management, less opportunities to abuse our D. Sounds like a fair plan to me. They have proven in the last 3 games that out running game is good and getting better. Now if Riley will only choose to use it correctly.

We'll see.

# posted by BeaverJoe : 11:28 AM  0 comments